What do the recent presidential “elections” mean for Belarusian civil society?

Authoritarian regimes never have a positive attitude toward civil society, especially its institutionalised forms and civil society organisations. Nothing annoys autocrats more than independent self-organisation. In this regard, the Lukashenko regime is no exception. Between the last two formal presidential elections, Belarusian civil society not only faced hostility from the state but became the target of a campaign aimed at its total destruction. Since 2021, the authorities have openly declared their intent to dismantle civil society, eradicating all its forms and formats. The only ones allowed to remain were GONGOs (Government-Organised Non-Governmental Organisations) or those willing to demonstrate loyalty to the regime and effectively become one.

Between 2021 and 2025, more than two thousand civil society organisations were dismantled in Belarus. By the time Belarus approached the sham presidential elections in late January 2025, civil society had reached a point where no visible organised forms or structures remained. Of course, civil society as a whole cannot be entirely eradicated – no matter how many restrictions or obstruction it faces. However, by the time of the elections, the reality in Belarus was that many organisations had been forced into exile—bringing with it all the inherent challenges of operating from abroad, the inability to fully carry out their mission and the lack of direct access to their target audience.

In this situation, organisations that continue to engage with Belarus from within—working directly with Belarusians inside the country—have become critically important. Often, these operate in a “half-outside” model, where the most sensitive aspects—leadership, management and finances—are moved abroad, while activists inside the country receive support through various channels and continue their work. Another approach is the “partisan” model, where organisations formally exist within the system—sometimes operating under the umbrella of state institutions—while in reality, they pursue their own independent activities. However, this is an extremely fragile and precarious model. It creates a blurred line between NGOs and GONGOs, where it becomes increasingly difficult to tell whether an organisation is merely disguising itself or if the disguise has become its true identity.

This was the state in which Belarusian civil society faced the latest presidential elections. Since, from a political standpoint, these “elections” were nothing more than a crude imitation—arguably the most blatant one in all of Lukashenko’s time in power—they did not allow for real alternative candidates, any form of political competition, or even token gestures of leniency toward civil society. In this context, the regime saw no need to showcase, either to domestic or international audiences, any illusion of expanding space for NGOs.

The recent elections were of little interest to anyone except experts. Fake candidates did nothing to engage the public— no one looking at them felt inspired to become politically active or participate in civil society. In such a situation, there is no expectation of a revival of civic initiatives, as was seen in 2020. As a result, there is no real basis to believe that anything will change inside the country.

However, no changes have occurred outside the country either. In foreign policy, the regime has failed to shift the narrative away from the democratic forces. The countries that refused to recognise Lukashenko after the 2020 elections still do not recognise him now. At this point, the number of states and international organisations that have congratulated Lukashenko on his “victory” is smaller than those that have publicly declared the elections illegitimate. In other words, foreign policy remains a domain where democratic forces have had greater success.

In this situation, Belarusian NGOs continue to receive external support and have the ability to operate in other countries. Their current status is not worsening, but there are no visible conditions for a breakthrough either. Undoubtedly, this presents a significant challenge for NGOs. What I find most inspiring are examples of hybrid work models—where NGOs, on one hand, exist within the European context and maintain ties with Europe, while at the same time, they sustain activities inside Belarus, preserving both their networks and people on the ground.

This undoubtedly requires a high level of flexibility. Navigating what can be disclosed and what must stay hidden, handling financial processes, ensuring both transparency and security for those engaged in civic initiatives—all of these present serious challenges. However, we are witnessing a gradual development of effective working methods.

All of this allows me to look ahead with optimism and believe in the strength of civil society. It has managed to withstand these immense challenges and will undoubtedly continue to do so, as long as European countries recognise the importance of supporting it. This is not charity—it is an investment in Belarus’s European future.

If we want European soft power to remain effective in Belarus, if we want Belarusians to see a European path for themselves and truly understand European values—not the distorted version presented by Kremlin propaganda and its echo through Lukashenko’s regime—then recognising the importance of this investment is crucial. We can see how Russia is actively expanding its sphere of influence—pouring resources into influencers, fabricating the appearance of civic engagement through various centers attached to embassies and universities. If there is no alternative to this, if all systematic efforts and resources in this field come solely from the Kremlin (which spares no expense on propaganda), then pro-European sentiment in Belarus may not endure. That is why supporting civil society is not just an act of solidarity—it is an investment in Belarus’s European choice, in regional security and ultimately, in shared strategic interests.

Vadim Mojeiko, political analyst, Belarus